The Future of Trucking (Part 1 of 4): Self-Driving Commercial Trucks
The self-driving commercial truck revolution has started, and the technology will reshape logistics for better or worse. Ideally, autonomous trucks will offer solutions to driver shortages, road safety, operational efficiency, and environmental sustainability. But, the future is complicated and not all self-driving trucks are created equal.
What are Different Levels of Self-Driving Vehicles
Vehicles are given an SAE rating on a scale of 2 – 4 to denote the level of autonomy:
SAE Level 2: The vehicle can steer and brake but needs to be actively monitored by a fully engaged driver. Think of it as a highly complex cruise control. Examples of these vehicles are Tesla’s Autopilot, Hyundai’s Highway Driving Assist, and Ford’s BlueCruise.
SAE Level 3: The vehicle can perform complicated tasks like speed adjustments, accelerating, braking, and lane changes without driver input. Humans can disengage but must remain available in the vehicle in case the driving system runs across a situation it can’t handle. These vehicles include Honda’s Traffic Jam Pilot (available in Japan) and Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot (approved in Germany).
SAE Level 4: Level 4 vehicles can perform any task without human intervention within a predefined operational design domain (ODD). In other words, Level 4 can operate in any structure with clearly identified highways, routes, and interstates. These vehicles may not perform in conditions that occur in more rural areas. Driverless taxis and shuttles like Waymo in Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are examples of this technology.
Estimated Timeline and Projected Growth for Level 4
- By 2027, self-driving trucks are expected to hit the roads on very specific hub-to-hub routes. Hub-to-hub routes use local drivers to move the freight for the first and last miles of the delivery. The self-driving trucks would transport the freight to the long-distance portion. The long-distance will have a platoon system with two or three trucks. The manually operated lead truck sets the pace and direction for the other trucks.
- By 2030–2035, broader adoption across long-haul freight routes is anticipated as the technology matures and regulators hammer out the framework.
- Worldwide, heavy-duty autonomous trucks number around 13,100. That number is expected to grow to 1.25 million by 2044, an annualized growth of approximately 26% over twenty years. These numbers are based on the expected advancements in SAE Level 4 automation.
The Benefits of Autonomous Trucks
Closing the Gap in the Driver Shortage: The commercial trucking industry has struggled to find drivers for decades. The American Trucking Association (ATA) estimated the shortage of drivers to be 78,000. By 2031, they expect that number to grow to 160,000 if self-driving technologies remain undeveloped. Part of the reason for the jump is the growth of e-commerce and economic expansion. Autonomous commercial vehicles could dramatically reduce this demand. Goldman Sach estimates autonomous vehicles could eliminate up to 300,000 commercial driving jobs a year once SAE Level 4 is fully functional.
Enhanced Safety: No clear-cut research exists on how much autonomous commercial trucks will reduce accidents. We know that more than 75% of commercial trucking accidents cite fatigue, distraction, or speeding as the causes. Self-driving trucks don’t get tired, distracted, or drive above the speed limit. Also, self-driving trucks have much faster reaction times to hazards and can process them before they are visible to a human driver. For example, early this year, at a testing facility in Pittsburgh, a fully autonomous 18-wheeler’s sensors detected a trash can and tire in the road from 1/4 mile away. The truck signaled, moved to a clear lane, and drove past the obstacles.
Increased Efficiency/Cost Savings: Autonomous trucks can operate continuously without breaks required by human drivers, improving asset utilization and reducing delivery times. Trucks that only stop for fuel, maintenance, or deliveries may reduce fuel costs by 25%. And, of course, fewer drivers are needed so carriers can reduce labor costs.
Environmental Impact: The estimated fuel savings from the efficiency of direct routes with only necessary stops are pretty straightforward. But autonomous trucks can operate during off-peak hours, reducing idling times and traffic congestion. A study by TuSimple Research estimated that long-haul commercial trucks adopting autonomous technology would save 279 million gallons of diesel fuel each year.
The adoption of self-driving commercial trucks is coming. Opinions differ on the timeline and scope, but they will be on the roads in some form in the next few years.
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